NOAA Releases Winter Outlook for 2023-24
Keith Lusher 10.24.23
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its winter forecast for the 2023/2024 season and by the looks of it, the US may be breaking out of the cold cycle we’ve been seeing for the past four years. For the first time since 2019, El Nino is in place which should dictate warmer-than-average temperatures for the north.
Regions that have the best shot for warmer-than-average conditions are Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and northern New England. While these areas are forecasted to be warmer than normal, no parts of the nation are forecasted to be colder than average.
As far as rainfall, from December through February NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions for parts of the West, northern Alaska, the southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast, and lower mid-Atlantic. Drier-than-average conditions are expected across the northern tier of the U.S. with the highest chance of an above average rainy season forecasted for the northern Rockies and High Plains and near the Great Lakes.
“An enhanced southern jet stream and associated moisture often present during strong El Nino events supports high odds for above-average precipitation for the Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast states this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center.
Temperature
- The northern tier of the U.S. and much of the West should see warmer-than-average temperatures.
- Those areas that stand the best chance of seeing warm temperatures are Alaska, northern New England, and the Pacific Northwest.
- Areas that are forecasted to experience Near-normal seasonal mean temperatures are most likely for a region from the southern Plains to the south-central Rockies.
- The areas not mentioned fall into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal mean temperatures.
Precipitation
- Northern Alaska, some areas of the West from parts of California to the south-central Rockies, the southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Southeast, and lower mid-Atlantic are forecasted to experience wetter-than-average conditions.
- Among the regions with the greatest odds for drier-than-average conditions are portions of the northern Rockies and central Great Lakes region, especially for Indiana, northern Ohio, and Michigan
- The majority of the central portion of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal total precipitation.
For more information about NOAA’s Winter Forecast and its drought forecast please visit noaa.gov
